Evaluating Bangladesh’s Key Sectors for a Just Green Transition

The Opportunity

Bangladesh is one of the seven fastest-growing economies in the world. However, it is also one of the top seven countries most vulnerable to climate change. The nation’s recurring floods, droughts, and saline intrusion are indicative of this premonition. One in seven people in Bangladesh is predicted to be displaced by climate change by the year 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations, climate change might cause Bangladesh to lose between 2% and 9% of its yearly GDP by the middle and end of the century. Simply stated, Bangladesh lacks the time to grow first and go green later. We need to make a significant change to the nation’s development paradigm in order to respond to climate change appropriately. A just green transition is required for the nation to succeed despite climate change as this would safeguard the environment, encourage inclusive decent work and spur growth.

Our Approach

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the market systems under consideration, LightCastle Partners leveraged a mixed methods approach, which included secondary research as well as consultations with relevant industry stakeholders. In-depth desk research was conducted to comprehend the socioeconomic opportunities, viewpoints, and global and national discourse around green growth, sustainable development, industrial sustainability, green jobs, and green entrepreneurship. In total, eight sectors were rapidly assessed to identify the two sectors with the highest green growth potential till 2025. The Heatmap for Sector Meta Scores on Scoring Rubric is below:

The team assigned the sectoral ratings in the form of a weighted average score, taking into account the potential effects on the community and environment as well as the sectoral importance, MSMEs’ development potential, and skills needed for the green transition. Finally, the agro-processing sector and electric vehicle sector were chosen for deep-dive analysis ahead of the RMG sector, to avoid duplication of existing literature.

The Future

As the environmental, economic, and health consequences of climate change transpire across the world, it has become vital for the country to lead by example in green transformation, particularly in the context of its high climate vulnerability. The financing of green premiums is and will likely remain complex in the near future, hence it is especially important to support private sector actors, financial institutions, and investors interested in green projects with technical, regulatory, and financial assistance. Hence, supporting and skilling MSMEs, self-employed youth, and lower-skilled workers in alignment with the needs and trajectories of the economy is key not only for unlocking the demographic dividend of the country, but also its green dividend.

Building on the findings of this study, it is necessary to actively engage stakeholders to identify prospective partnership opportunities to support transition in the EV sector and agriculture sub-sectors. Lastly, advocacy is needed to develop a Labor Market Information System, which maps skills, including green skills, to occupations and sectors.